Here we are in late July, on the precipice of training camp for all 32 NFL franchises, so it's time for some initial rankings. Since it is still early, I'll offer up just a tease over the course of this weekend. My Top 12 players overall and at each glorious fantasy relevant position will be revealed. So here, without further ado, is how a typical 12-team league's first round would play out if I were picking for each spot.
1)RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings-No shock here. None whatsoever. For all you contrarians out there, just stop and ask yourself one question. Do you really want to be the guy who had the first overall pick and passed on Purple Jesus the year that he set the NFL's all-time single season yardage record? If you answer yes to that question, please send me your e-mail address and I'll invite you to participate in one of my leagues. I love taking money from people who can't even get out of their own way. Don't overthink it. Peterson is a 2,000 yard bomb just waiting to explode and season three for him seems as good a time as any.
2)RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars-The numbers are clear. In his first three seasons, MoJo has only had the pleasure of playing four games without sharing the load with the artist formerly known as "Fragile" Fred Taylor. The results in those games? Try an average of 100 yards per game rushing in addition to all the wonderful peripherals that Jones-Drew brings to the table. The Jags believe that the kid from UCLA can do it on an every down basis and you should too. Expect over 1,800 total yards and 15 TD's in 2009. If that's not enough for you from a RB1, then you're just too greedy for your own good.
3)RB Matt Forte, Bears-He was a stud from the first moment he touched an NFL field and he never looked back. Don't anticipate a sophomore slump for Forte. His reception numbers could slip a little because his new QB is much more aggressive downfield, but expect more holes at the line of scrimmage and better rushing numbers as a result of Jay Cutler's presence. And there's more room for improvement at the goal line for this second year star from Tulane. Forte should continue trending up at the same time many former fantasy stalwarts are trending down.
4)RB Michael Turner, Falcons-Last year's carries are a red flag(not to mention an expanded role for Jerious Norwood). Only one guy, LaDainian Tomlinson, has avoided a slip in numbers the year following a 370+ attempt season. L.T.'s greatness aside, don't be overly concerned about Turner in '09. After backing up in San Diego for so long, the Burner should have plenty of tread still left on his tires and a slight drop in production would still keep him among the elite guys in all of fantasy football.
5)RB Frank Gore, 49ers-Call this one more of a gut call. But a Buddha gut is a prodigious gut and one you should listen to. His three year averages are 1,700+ total yards, 7 TD's, and 52 receptions(for you PPR guys). Not exactly shabby. Gore typically gets overlooked as a result of playing in San Fran. This season, however, being a 49er works in his favor. Mike Singletary is dedicated to the run and has a very solid offensive line in front of Gore. Add in six games versus the weak NFC West and you have the recipe for a breakout year.
6)QB Drew Brees, Saints-I normally always encourage the drafting of running backs at all costs in the first round, but not this year. The proliferation of running back by committee situations around the NFL combined with so many aging former superstars at the RB position has led me to rethink that old strategy. Brees is as close to a sure thing as there is on the board at six. Just look back at my blog and read "The Case for Drew Brees."
7)WR Randy Moss, Patriots-Surely you haven't forgotten 2007 already? That season "The Freak" finished second in fantasy value behind only, mama there goes that man, LaDainian Tomlinson. Tom Brady plus Randy Moss equalled 98 catches for 1,493 yards and an NFL record 23 TD's that year. Coming off a disappointing '08 due to Brady's injury, I expect Moss to vault back to the top of the wide receiver rankings upon reuniting with Mr. Gisele Bundchen in 2009. Twenty TD's may be pushing it, but I think fifteen is a lock along with 1,300 yards. I shouldn't have to tell you, but that's better than almost every RB you could draft at this point.
8)WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals-I'm in the overwhelming minority here. Lesbian chic has nothing on Fitz as your number one wideout. Everybody's doing it. It's not like I'm anti-Fitzgerald. More like I'm pro-Moss. Randy's ceiling is higher than Larry's and it's just that simple. And you don't get any of those absurd playoff numbers Fitzgerald put up in that memorable Cardinals' Super Bowl run either. But you should be able to bank on another 1,300 yards and double digit touchdowns.
9)WR Andre Johnson, Texans-Welcome to 2009. It's a time when locking up a solid number one WR is more important than ever due to the lack of guaranteed contributors at the position. As I've mentioned, RBBC's are everywhere these days and the savvy fantasy owner knows he/she can get better value at RB late in the draft than they can at wide receiver. AJ is every bit the player of the two guys preceeding him on the list and it's time for him to become the red zone beast he was born to be. Pray for the health of Matt Schaub if you draft Johnson, though.
10)RB Steve Slaton, Texans-Another second year RB in the Top 10? Yup. It's a transition year at the top and these things happen. Even more surprising is that Little Stevie is the second Texan in the first round. Houston's front office has done a great job recently and Slaton is just the latest example. The former third round pick from West Virginia burst onto the scene by tallying over 1,600 total yards and 10 TD's in 15 games as a rookie. You can take him here(or even a little higher if you don't like WR's) and feel safe because of how well his skill-set fits with the other talented players surrounding him on an underrated offensive team in Houston.
11)RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers-As draft time nears, I find myself coming back around on L.T. Not all the way, mind you, but at least to the point that he appears to be a viable low-end RB1 and worth a late first round selection. Take a look back at his 2008 season. 1,536 total yards. 12 TD's. Another 50+ reception season. Was it really that bad? He almost singlehandedly won me a league in the rarest of all birds, a Week 17 Super Bowl. Tomlinson's three touchdown game vs. Denver may have been tough for many of you who had already been eliminated to watch, but it was downright redemptive for me. Another year like '08 is conceivable for this all-time great fantasy performer.
12)RB Steven Jackson, Rams-While he could easily outperform this ranking, I know he's burned many of you over the past two seasons and, more importantly, plays for a very weak St. Louis Rams team in the midlle of a massive rebuild. On a positive note, the team drafted a potential star at left tackle in Jason Smith from Baylor and seems dedicated to Jackson being the centerpiece of the offense. S-Jax is going to have some rough weeks, but the good should outweigh the bad and he should make a strong push for 1,600 total yards and 10 TD's in 2009.
Keep checking back over the next couple of days for more of my Dirty Dozens. Hasta la vista everyone.
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