Okay. Here we are in early February. Post-Senior Bowl and Pro Bowl, pre-Super Bowl. And I'm here to say how wrong I was about three 2nd year NFL running backs in 2009. Nobody gets it right all the time, but I was so far off on these guys that it's a wonder I was able to even keep myself competitive this past fantasy football season. However, thanks to nabbing Matt Schaub in the 8th round and a career high 18 TD's for Adrian Peterson, I was able to come out victorious in my oldest, most prestigious league and put my name on the championship trophy for the sixth time in 13 years. Right on.
Now that I'm done patting myself on the back, let's get to why we're here. Three guys named Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson. And how far off the mark I was with all of them. Heading into the season, I actually had Forte and Slaton both rated in my Top 12 players overall. Sadly and apallingly, as it were. Chris Johnson, meanwhile, was a guy I had slated for around 1,300 total yards and about 7 TD's and a mid-2nd round draft slot. Not horrible, but not even in the same universe as the numbers he actually posted in his record smashing 2009 season.
Why was I so far off on these guys? That's what I hope to clear up. Here and now. And I hope to avoid ever making these mistakes again. But I doubt that'll happen. There's just too much uncertainty in fantasy football and that's what makes it so challenging and fun.
1)Forte's Fall - It all really starts with the acquisition of Jay Cutler. The Bears were so dead set on featuring their shiny new toy at QB that they forgot what kind of ballplayer they had at tailback. As a result, the pass became the first, second, and third option for a team not exactly loaded with NFL caliber wide receivers. Predictably, Chicago often found themselves behind in the first half of games. Trailing early doesn't lead to a lot of carries for your young star RB. Add to this the lackluster play of an aged offensive line, an unforgiving schedule, and a clueless offensive coordinator and you have a recipe for fantasy disaster. Chances are, if you owned Matt Forte last season you'll be gunshy in drafting him this year. He burned you...burned us...pretty good. I say don't give up on him completely though. If he lands in the third round, don't be scared to call his name and give Forte the same shot at fantasy redemption that many folks gave Joseph Addai this past season. Only this time as an RB2.
2)Slaton's Slide - Steve Slaton's 2009 season was a total reversal of his out-of-nowhere 2008 campaign. He seemed destined to flop from Week 1. He fumbled versus the Jets and was generally ineffective when he did hold onto the ball. Little Stevie didn't score a TD until the fourth game of the year versus the lowly Raiders and finished with only four all season. He failed to even average 40 yards per game rushing prior to a neck injury which ended his season in Week 12. His head coach, Gary Kubiak, has lost so much confidence in Slaton that he will likely have to compete just to get back into the RB rotation in 2010. I suppose we can chalk this bust up to that same lack of confidence from Kubiak. We, as fantasy owners, assume that players' jobs are set in stone when they have a season like Steve Slaton had in 2008. In fact, very very few players in the NFL have that kind of job security. Once the fumble problems started, it was all downhill for Slaton and probably for your fantasy squad too. I can't advise you to give "Stevie Blunder" a chance at retribution this season. I just don't see him fending off the competition for what used to be his job. It feels like this kid was a one hit wonder that we all just fell in love with a little too much.
3)Chris' Coronation - Yes, at least for one year, fantasy football has a new king. All hail Chris Johnson and his 2,500+ total yards, 2,000+ yards rushing, and double digit TD's. And I didn't see it coming. I truly believed, heading into the year, that Johnson would continue to lose goal line carries to a slimmed down, harder working LenDale White. White was looking ahead to free agency at season's end and was coming off an awesome 2008 consisting of 15 TD's. I even had an inkling that White would steal enough carries for both backs to hit the one-thousand yard mark. Boy, was I wrong! Titans coach Jeff Fisher fell in love with CJ28 while White fell into his coach's doghouse. Johnson's unmatched speed and explosiveness combined with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL to make a mockery of opposing rush defenses. All told, Johnson had twelve games of 100 yds. or more on the ground and finished with eleven in a row. His 16 total TD's all seemed to be on long runs or pass receptions, making him everyone's sexy number one pick in their 2010 drafts. Everyone but me, that is. I understand, as a former owner of LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Marshall Faulk in their spike seasons, that it's only downhill from here for Chris Johnson. If you owned him in 2009, it'll always be one for the books. Remember it well, but understand that the numbers he put up were of the "once in a lifetime" variety and expect a certain amount of backslide. For more recent examples, see DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner.
If I were drafting number one today, I'd still go with guy who helped lead me to a title this year. The guy who has A LOT to prove after fumble problems, a dip in production over the second half of the season, and the ascension of other running backs have all relegated him to yesterday's news. Give me all the Purple Jesus I can get in 2010. You'll see. The most fearsome and talented running back on the board will now be the most motivated. Of course, I could be wrong and, as we know, it wouldn't be the first time.
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