Those of you who read my Drew Brees submission the other day may have been wondering why there was no mention of Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams. Surely, you thought, there was some kind of mistake. Buddha, you just forgot D-Will...right? Wrong. I didn't mention Williams because I don't buy into him and I don't recommend you get involved with him as anything more than a fantasy RB2 this year. If you expect another season like '08, you definitely have another thing coming. Here's why:
1)The Spike.
Last year was an "according to Hoyle" aberration from DeAngelo Williams. The 1,636 total yards and 20 TD's registered by him was a career-best spike to match all career-best spikes. And don't forget about the insane 5.5 yards per carry either. To put it in perspective, Jim Brown only averaged 5.2 ypc for his career and LaDainian Tomlinson's career best ypc average is 5.3 in 2003. Obviously, Williams' ridiculous numbers came completely out of nowhere and, it stands to reason, any sane prognosticator should expect a return to normalcy in 2009. What would normalcy look like? Best case, 1,200 total yards and 10 TD's. Worst case(aside from injury), 900 total and 6 TD's. Keep in mind that Williams' first two seasons combined yielded only 1,704 yards and 7 TD's. Odds are DeAngelo Williams regresses to the mean and puts up second round numbers, at best, this season.
2)The Time Share.
Ahhh. Yes. The competition. Young Mr. Stewart. He of the 893 yards and 9 TD's as a rookie in 2008. The human bowling ball with arguably the best stiff arm in the NFL and all the tools to be a Pro-Bowler. Jonathan Stewart got roughly 40% of the carries in Carolina last year and did nothing to lead anyone to believe that number will slip back this year. In fact, at 235 pounds and with the strength he possesses, Stewart is much more suited to goal line duty than Williams. It's totally reasonable to expect more opportunities for J-Stew when the Panthers are threatening in the upcoming season. I'm not suggesting that Stewart wins the job outright or even that he gains a 50/50 split in carries, just that he improves on his rookie numbers while DeAngelo inevitably slides back. Bottom line, you'll be able to snag Stewart in the 5th round or beyond and possibly get decent RB2 numbers while Williams will cost you a mid to late first-rounder and give you only slightly better production.
3)The QB Situation.
Last season, Jake Delhomme was a below average quarterback on and above average team. Plain and simple. A below 60% completion percentage. Barely a 1 to 1 TD to interception rate. And a pedestrian 3,288 passing yards. At times his play was acceptable and at other times he downright atrocious. Look no further than his 6 INT playoff performance against a Cardinals D that didn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of their opponents. This season, you should expect defensive coordinators all around the NFL to have studied the film of that game and poured over it as they come up with ways to try to slow down the Carolina rushing attack and put the pressure squarely on Delhomme to win games. This, too, should lead to a natural regression for the Panthers' lead back as he faces many more eight and, possibly, nine man fronts.
My recommendation to you is don't believe the hype surrounding DeAngelo Williams and be smart when your draft or auction rolls around. View him as no higher than the 14th rated running back and 21st overall player this season. If I were you, I'd gladly let that gentleman in the middle of the first round take Williams off the board while I stayed relaxed, kept my composure, and let the Frank Gores, Steve Slatons, and Brandon Jacobs' of the world fall to me. Also, don't be afraid to select a QB or wideout with one of your first two picks. This WR pool is more shallow and riskier than past seasons while you should be able to find plenty of capable RB's late due to the abundance of running back by committee situations in the NFL. Or, if you're extremely daring, you could go WR-WR in the first two rounds. That, however, is another discussion for another day.
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