Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Fantasy Football 2010: Defenses and Kickers

First off, my advice is to never...ever...get caught up in the inevitable...way too early...defensive runs that have occurred in every fantasy football draft in the history of mankind. Just don't do it. A defense, or three, will inevitably emerge from seemingly out of nowhere and handily outscore the preseason number one unit. In fact, no consensus preseason number one defense/special teams unit has even finished in the Top 10 for that season since the 2005 Chicago Bears. For this reason, I offer you my defensive suggestions, rather than rankings, for the 2010 season:

San Francisco 49ers - Great schedule. Best defensive player, not holding out, in the NFL. Defensive minded head coach. Great return guy in Ted Ginn Jr. I'd take them over anyone else.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Traditionally tough. Troy Polamalu is healthy again. Nice 3rd place schedule. Steelers looking for redemption after wetting the bed in 2009. Maybe they'll finally bring hell with 'em.

Baltimore Ravens - Regardless how bad their defensive backs are without Ed Reed, and they're pretty bad, the Ravens will always make plays. Sacks and turnovers = fantasy points.

Cincinnati Bengals - Nice corners in Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall. Improving defense versus run. Nice return guys. I don't think they'll be great, just better than expected.

New Orleans Saints - They were a top defense last season and I don't see any reason to think they'll fall off. Playmakers in the defensive backfield. Plus return game. Blitzing madman Gregg Williams calling the game.

Now, here is my sage advice on drafting kickers: If you draft one before the final round, then you're an idiot. Do not convince yourself that the edge you get from taking Garrett Hartley or Stephen Gostkowski justifies grabbing them a few rounds early. It doesn't. You might get your guy, but my guy will probably outscore him...and I just got a serviceable position player in the round you grabbed your "top ranked" kicker. Once again, these are merely suggestions, not rankings:

Sebastian Janikowski - He has as strong a leg as anyone in the NFL and a coach who isn't afraid to use it. New QB Jason Campbell specializes in getting teams in FG range. Top 5 kicker at season's end.

Graham Gano - Another Florida State alum. I liked Gano a lot coming out of college but, as with so many others in the past, it took some time for him to be ready for the NFL. Should get lots of chances.

Ryan Succop - Another guy with a big leg on a mediocre offensive team. Todd Haley is much more conservative than Tom Cable, but Succop should get a chance to develop into the next Mason Crosby.

Adam Vinatieri - Injury riddled and accuracy challenged the past two years, the potential Hall of Famer should rebound big this season. Lots of extra points and FG's inside of 40.

David Akers - Akers is almost never overdrafted, yet he almost always finishes among the top kickers. The Eagles, minus McNabb and Westbrook, may face an adjustment period and Akers would be the beneficiary.

Lastly, don't ever draft Jeff Reed. Ever. Would you want your fantasy football hopes and dreams hinging on this guy? My answer is a resounding "No!"

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