Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tom Brady. Show all posts

Saturday, April 30, 2011

Deep Draft Thoughts by Fantasy Buddha

Yeah. I know.
There are still four rounds left in this year's NFL Draft.
It doesn't matter because I have few things to say right now.
We can evaluate the draft in it's entirety later. Besides, there are approximately the same amount of current players in the NFL who were undrafted as there are from Rounds 4-7 combined. So, ya know, who cares that much about what happens today?
Unless, of course, there's another Tom Brady just waiting to be unearthed.
Anyway, these are some observations I have over the first two days:
  • The term "scheme diverse" will be put to the test after this draft. In the first round alone, guys like Ryan Kerrigan, Cameron Jordan and Phil Taylor all went to situations which seem to fly in the face of what each player is best suited for. Kerrigan seems, to me anyway, to be more of a 4-3 end and he got selected by Washington, which runs a 3-4 defense. And on the flipside, Jordan and Taylor both seemed perfect for 3-4 schemes and they both went to 4-3 teams.
  • Reaches were the story of the first round. Minnesota, Seattle and Kansas City all reached dramatically and, I fear, could pay dearly for their transgressions. Christian Ponder could set the Vikings organization back years if someone like Joe Webb can't bail them out. Meanwhile, Jonathan Baldwin's lackadaisical attitude and lazy play will mesh with head coach Todd Haley about as well as Sith get along with Jedi. And, while I like James Carpenter, the Seahawks could have waited and possibly still gotten him as late as the third round.
  • Quarterbacks have been seriously overvalued so far this draft. Except for Ryan Mallett. And that's another story altogether. Bottom line, there is no true franchise QB in this draft. Cam Newton has "sky's the limit" potential but a very low floor too. Jake Locker did the whole senior season thing at U Dub, but is still no lock to be a productive NFL signal caller. Blaine Gabbert landed in an incredible situation in Jacksonville and should get a chance to learn the Jaguars system before being thrown into the fray. But he's not ready now. And you know how hopeless I think Ponder is. Beyond that, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick each experienced inflated value because NFL decision makers apparently thought the sky was falling and felt they had to get their guy at QB posthaste. History has taught us that many more QBs miss than hit in the NFL Draft. This year will be no different.
  • Minnesota and Kansas City were at least able to redeem themselves on Day 2 of the draft. The Vikings got first round value at a second round price in Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph while the Chiefs added useful players like Rodney Hudson, Allen Bailey and Justin Houston to offset the mistake of drafting Baldwin, the next Darrius Heyward-Bey, in the first.
  • It may be time to start taking Detroit and Tampa Bay really seriously on defense. The Lions added Ndamukong Suh at defensive tackle in 2010 and he became arguably the best DT in the NFL by season's end. This year, Detroit was able to pair the nasty Nick Fairley with Suh for what could become a historically dominant defensive tackle duo. And, in Tampa, the Bucs followed up last season's drafting of solid young DTs Gerald McCoy and Brian Price by adding two talented defensive ends, Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers, and an underrated linebacker in Mason Foster.
  • A few teams sent out big F-U's to current (soon to be former?) players. Carolina, by taking Cam Newton with Jimmy Clausen still on board. New Orleans, by drafting Mark Ingram with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas still on the roster. Dallas, by drafting the talented yet injury prone DeMarco Murray with an aging Marion Barber still around. Green Bay, by selecting Randall Cobb with James Jones uncertain of his standing with the team. And lastly, Arizona. The Cardinals took explosive running back Ryan Williams from Virginia Tech to send a clear message to both Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower.
  • The fantasy football fallout from the NFL Draft so far is still to be determined, but Ingram, Julio Jones and Daniel Thomas are all in positions to contribute immediately while Mikel LeShoure could render Jahvid Best nothing more than a Justin Forsett type back in Detroit and A.J. Green, despite his blue chip ability, will be limited by how fast his young QB develops. Also keep an eye on both of the young Boise State wide receivers (Titus Young in Detroit and Austin Pettis in St. Louis) and Lance Kendricks at tight end for the Rams.
  • A few bold trade predictions if/when teams are allowed to start making moves again? Why certainly. Donovan McNabb gets dealt to Arizona straight up for Beanie Wells. Steve Smith gets shipped out to Boston by the Panthers to play out his final productive years with Tom Brady. Seattle realizes that Matt Hasselbeck is done as an NFL starter and Charlie Whitehurst isn't the answer and responds by going out and dealing for Carson Palmer, who happily reunites with Pete Carroll. Cincy also deals Chad Ochocinco away to the always happy to overpay Raiders and he changes his name back to Johnson. Finally, Poor Kevin Kolb goes nowhere.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Fantasy Football 2010: Top 24 Quarterbacks

1)Drew Brees - Why not? Brees is a model of consistency and directs one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. The guy averages 4575 passing yards and 31 TD's in four years with the Saints. How much more can you reasonably expect from anyone else?

2)Peyton Manning - Are you sensing a theme here? Consistently great. Loaded offense. Sounds familiar doesn't it? In my mind, Peyton is 1B to Drew's 1A. They are the surest bets on the board at QB and there's a reason they opposed one another in last season's Super Bowl.

3)Aaron Rodgers - The NFL's version of A-Rod is everyone else's number one fantasy QB. With good reason too. The kid has skills and weapons and helms a team on the rise. I just can't see his ceiling being as high as my top two guys, hence Rodgers lands at number three for me.

4)Tom Brady - Brady is as competitive as any player, not just QB, in the entire NFL. He knows how disappointing last season was. He also knows that the window for another Patriots Super Bowl run is closing quickly. Expect him to demand one more huge season from Randy Moss and utilize his talented new TE's a lot in the red zone.

5)Matt Schaub - I've always liked Schaub. But I'll always be skeptical about his ability to stay healthy too. He finally had the season in '09 that so many people had been expecting from him since he joined the Texans. In order for Schaub to have a strong follow-up in 2010, he'll need Owen Daniels to get healthy and a receiver(Jacoby Jones, perhaps?) to step his game up.

6)Tony Romo - Romo has been anything but consistent since taking over at quarterback for the Cowboys. Lack of reps with future star Dez Bryant and the current lack of a dependable WR2 option, I'm looking at you Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton, have Romo slipping. If somebody doesn't do something soon(more reps for Kevin Ogletree?) to improve Dallas' aerial attack, this could become a full blown slide.

7)Philip Rivers - Rivers, to me, is a much better NFL quarterback than he is a fantasy QB. For example, his QB rating in 2009 was third in the league while ranking in the lower half of starting fantasy QB's. Don't fall too in love with this guy. With star WR Vincent Jackson holding out into the season, who knows if Malcolm Floyd can ascend to the heights of an NFL number one receiver. Look for Rivers to find Antonio Gates in the red zone more often this year and Legedu Naanee to possibly take off as a fantasy player.

8)Jay Cutler - First of all, if your league penalizes for interceptions you may disregard this ranking. However, the overwhelming majority of my leagues these days are not negative points leagues and, based on that scoring, Cutler's "disastrous" 2009 season still ranked him among the Top 12 QB's. He clearly developed a rapport with Devin Aromashodu last year and now has Mike Martz' aerial show coming to the Windy City. Johnny Knox is ready to explode a la DeSean Jackson in '09. Consider this a pure upside play.

9)Kevin Kolb - I'm buying on Kolb in 2010. He and his weapons in Philly are all in the same age range and these kids are going to get every chance to grow up and grow old together. The Eagles nucleus is flat-out scary and Kolb gets to direct them. As good as some of the other young QB's around the league have looked, none have the fantasy upside of Kolb. I'm not willing to compare him to A-Rod, but the situation is similar and his mobility is very underrated.

10)Joe Flacco - Nobody was happier than Flacco to welcome Anquan Boldin to Baltimore, right? "Joe Cool" has made an impressive impact on the NFL despite never having a true number one wideout at his disposal. Boldin brings that to the Ravens and should provide the impetus for Flacco to become a regular starting fantasy QB in 2010 and beyond. He'll probably never be a top 5 guy, but he should be dependable.

11)Brett Favre - Brett's back. Bad wheel and all. He's still a fantasy starter, but nowhere near his final ranking from 2009. My heart says Favre has another run in him. My head, however, thinks the future HOFer is finally going to miss some games this season before he hangs 'em up. Missing Sid Rice for at least eight weeks is going to hurt almost as bad as that ankle.

12)Eli Manning - The younger Manning bro put together his first start-to-finish campaign last season and I expect him to improve along with the development of future fantasy star WR Hakeem Nicks. Steve Smith is Eli's go-to guy and should contribute at least 90 more receptions while Ahmad Bradshaw's increased playing time will provide more options in the short passing game. An improved defense and heavier emphasis on the run could cost Eli opportunities, though.

13)Carson Palmer
14)Matt Ryan
15)Matthew Stafford
16)Vince Young
17)Chad Henne
18)Donovan McNabb
19)Ben Roethlisberger
20)Alex Smith
21)Matt Cassel
22)Derek Anderson
23)Jason Campbell
24)Matt Hasselbeck